It's probably one of the most contested topics at the moment, should we be getting back to big central offices, or continuing the work from home life that we're starting to become accustomed to.
Working from home (WFH) is obviously nothing new. Before Covid (BC if you will) WFH was slowly increasing with the Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures showing that in 2019 around 5% of people were mainly working from home, about 1.7 million people.
Then suddenly, overnight, businesses across the country saw this rise to 100%, or at least very close to that as we were ordered to work from home wherever possible. For most businesses this was a huge upheaval but it was amazing to see how well they and their employees adapted. The immediate switch to conference and video calls was almost seamless, with many wondering why they hadn't done this much sooner.
Possibly the biggest impact though has been on retail and hospitality businesses. As city centre's are left deserted all of the cafes, restaurants, pubs, bars, sandwich shops and pretty much anything else that relies on office workers are also left deserted. In the city suburbs, towns and villages it is quite a different story though. No matter where you work from, whether it be at home, in an office, or from a beach, you need to eat, drink, socialise, and exercise.
Businesses in the suburbs and villages, particularly those that can adapt quickly, have the opportunity to see great positives from lockdown and the sudden shift the WFH. Now while this may well come with some short term negative as businesses need to invest in new technology, processes and general ways of working, those that do this quickly and efficiently can see long term benefits in increased revenues, profits and a loyal customer base. In the first lockdown back in Spring it was quite obvious which businesses grasped the opportunity and which didn't.
Where I lived in SW London of my three local pubs, only one adapted quickly and started offering take-aways from their now COVID-secure front door. Through the warm Spring and Summer months they seemingly always had a queue of thirsty residents. My two other locals on the other hand never opened and stayed shut until the lockdown ended later in the Summer. Now of course I don't know the individual financials of these businesses and whether the pub that opened made profit but on the surface at least they were getting cash flow and built a great reputation among locals.
I've seen great examples of businesses adapting to there customers changing work patterns, I particularly like the this one sent to me, from a pub in Kent, they say it's proven very popular. I also liked this idea in the FT of ice cream vans but for Pret-a-Manger coffees and sandwiches, driving around the suburbs delivering coffees and sandwiches to the hungry work from homers.
Local councils and broader government has a big part to play and can also realise some of opportunities too, in reduced traffic and pollution, improved local businesses, and ultimately happier residents. The Welsh Government have encouraged residents to work from home even as lockdown was ending, saying they ultimately aim to have 30% of people working from or near to home.
The city of Cardiff in Wales has adapted it's network of local libraries in to 'Hubs' where people can work from for some or all of the day, within easy walking or cycling distance from home. Towns and Cities can very easily remain a focus for peoples lives, if they grasp the opportunities.
There's a great opportunity for businesses in all sectors who are able to adapt to work from home (or even work from anywhere) practices, and that's the huge increase in the reachable talent pool. Where businesses may previously have limited their recruitment to their city or region, often within an hours commute of the office, they now have the whole country to recruit from, or if they're really ambitious the whole world. The opportunity here for businesses really can't be overstated, going from a talent pool of hundreds, maybe low thousands if they're lucky, to high thousands or even tens of thousands is huge. Not only allowing businesses to find the absolute best people but also at potentially a much more economic cost, keeping the CFO happy.
For employees the same opportunity presents itself, although there is also a bit of a threat there too. If you're looking for a job and you can work from home then the number of vacancies to choose from increases considerably. A quick search on Indeed for "Social Media Manager" in London brings up just over 80 positions but changing this to the whole of the UK brings another 100 vacancies to the table.
The threat for employees of course is that their own competition also greatly increases. As already discussed, businesses can recruit from a much wider pool and as always increased competition brings costs (salary) down too, a double hit for job seekers.
Let's also think about the wider threat in that businesses can pick from a global supply chain for tasks that may previously have been done in-house by a full time employee. Take graphic design as an example, where a team of graphic designers will have been employed in-house to work in the office, their tasks can now be easily outsourced to someone in Vietnam who advertises their services on sites like Fiverr. Why hire a graphic designer on £30k/year when you can get someone in Vietnam to do it for £4 a go?
As people spend less time and money on commuting there are great opportunities presented to spend that in other, more fulfilling ways. The £100s people spend each month on commuting can be spent on entertainment, experiences, better quality and healthier food, or invested in their and their families futures. The 10s of hours saved each week commuting can be spent on better quality time with family, on better sleep, or again invested to improve our physical and mental wellbeing through exercise or learning new skills. The work-life balance improvements can be significant for many.
And this brings us to another great opportunity - the environment. People working from home ultimately means reduced car journeys, less train trips, and fewer flights. Those times we do have to travel we'll spend less time in traffic, reducing our emissions. All helping us to improve the air we breath and the environment we leave for our older selves and future generations. Defra reported an average drop in Nitrous Oxide (NOx) of 30-40% in urban areas over the initial lockdown period.
Finally we come on to the fate of the office. Despite everything discussed above and what may seem obvious in that offices will disappear I actually believe that offices have a very bright future, if businesses are able to adapt and change sufficiently. Offices will remain but will become creative hubs. They will go from being places that individuals go to work at a desk to being places where teams come together to collaborate. Large floor plates filled with rows of desks will become flexible meeting rooms with whiteboard filled walls. Teams will come together in these spaces infrequently but will be hugely creative and productive when they do, being free from regular office distractions. Workshops, brainstorming sessions, project kick-offs, briefs and presentations will all take place over a day or two before everyone returns to their home offices to work on their individual tasks and outputs, perhaps coming back together in a month or so for a day to plan the next phase of work, before again heading home to crack on with their tasks.
Businesses that can adapt and enable this way of working will, I believe, have a very bright future.
In Summary:
Hospitality and retail businesses that can quickly adapt to changing consumer behaviour can realise some great opportunities at a local level.
Councils and broader government have a big role to play in enabling people to better work from home, and too could get great benefit.
A great opportunity for businesses is the hugely increased pool of people to recruit from, or outsource tasks to.
Similarly, for employees there's a great opportunity to increase the number of potential employers available to you.
This also represents a great threat to employees in that their jobs could be done by someone much cheaper in another part of the country, or even a different continent.
There's a good opportunity to improve peoples physical and mental wellbeing with improvements in work-life balance, more time to spend with family and friends, and less money spent on commuting.
The environmental impact could be very positive with fewer polluting journeys in to and out of towns and cities.
Offices are here to stay but will adapt in to being spaces that teams go for creative sessions, rather than individuals working at desks.